Leon 2–1 Guadalajara Chivas: Result & Stats

Leon

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Guadalajara Chivas

1/29/2025

Liga MX · Clausura - 4Estadio León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

Leon43%

×Draw26%

Guadalajara Chivas31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeonExpected goals in this matchGuadalajara Chivas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.16

Leon

1.42

Guadalajara Chivas

1.16

Leon creates 22% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 146 away

1.61

creates per match

1.18

1.14

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Leon

1.61

Guadalajara Chivas

1.18

allows per match

Leon

1.14

Guadalajara Chivas

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leon+0.00on par

Guadalajara Chivas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leon ↓

Guadalajara Chivas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Leon or draw

69%

Leon or Guadalajara Chivas

74%

Draw or Guadalajara Chivas

57%

Winning margin

Leon wins by 2+

21%

Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Leon 1+ goals

76%

Leon 2+ goals

41%

Leon 3+ goals

17%

Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals

69%

Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals

32%

Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Leon (draw refunded)

58%

Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leon at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.14 · 148 matches

Guadalajara Chivas away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.23 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leon attack 1.61 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.42

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.18 + Leon defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Leon scores more

43%

level

26%

Guadalajara Chivas scores more

31%

Leon at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Leon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff