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Guadalajara Chivas vs Leon — Liga MX 2026

Guadalajara Chivas
Guadalajara Chivas
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Leon
Leon
3/19/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 9Estadio Akron

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

Guadalajara Chivas44%
×Draw26%
Leon30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guadalajara Chivas
1.45
Leon
1.16

Guadalajara Chivas creates 25% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 146 away

creates per match

Guadalajara Chivas
1.42
Leon
1.27

allows per match

Guadalajara Chivas
1.04
Leon
1.48

finishing

Guadalajara Chivas+0.00on par
Leon+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guadalajara Chivas ↓

Leon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Guadalajara Chivas or draw
70%
Guadalajara Chivas or Leon
74%
Draw or Leon
56%

Winning margin

Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+
21%
Leon wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals
77%
Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals
42%
Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals
18%
Leon 1+ goals
69%
Leon 2+ goals
32%
Leon 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)
59%
Leon (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guadalajara Chivas at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.04 · 147 matches

Leon away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.48 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.42 + Leon defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.45

Leon attack 1.27 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Guadalajara Chivas scores more
44%
level
26%
Leon scores more
30%

Guadalajara Chivas at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Guadalajara Chivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guadalajara Chivas vs Leon

Guadalajara Chivas beat Leon 5-0 in Liga MX on March 19, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Akron in Zapopan.