Leon 1–2 Guadalajara Chivas: Result & Stats

Leon

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Guadalajara Chivas

J. Alvarado 25'

Y. Padilla 81'

A. Briseño 21'

7/4/2023

Liga MX · Apertura - 1Estadio León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Leon37%

×Draw25%

Guadalajara Chivas38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeonExpected goals in this matchGuadalajara Chivas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.45

Leon

1.43

Guadalajara Chivas

1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.54

creates per match

1.51

1.39

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Leon

1.54

Guadalajara Chivas

1.51

allows per match

Leon

1.39

Guadalajara Chivas

1.31

-0.04on par

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

Leon-0.04on par

Guadalajara Chivas+0.16scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leon ↓

Guadalajara Chivas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Leon or draw

62%

Leon or Guadalajara Chivas

75%

Draw or Guadalajara Chivas

63%

Winning margin

Leon wins by 2+

17%

Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Leon 1+ goals

76%

Leon 2+ goals

42%

Leon 3+ goals

17%

Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals

77%

Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals

42%

Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Leon (draw refunded)

49%

Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leon at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.39 · 6 matches

Guadalajara Chivas away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.31 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leon attack 1.54 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.43

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.51 + Leon defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Leon scores more

37%

level

25%

Guadalajara Chivas scores more

38%

Guadalajara Chivas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Guadalajara Chivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

E. Hernández

Leon · M

8.9

Match Events

21'

A. Briseño

25'

J. Alvarado↳ E. Hernández

39'

Víctor Guzmán

41'

Jaine Barreiro

60'

A. Torres← R. González

60'

J. Brígido← P. Pérez

60'

R. Cisneros← R. Marín

71'

J. Rodríguez← J. Angulo

71'

D. Ramírez← I. Moreno

71'

B. Rubio← J. Alvarado

74'

Y. Padilla← I. Brizuela

77'

Antonio Briseño

81'

Y. Padilla↳ V. Guzmán

83'

O. Fernández← L. Romero

88'

R. Martínez← V. Guzmán

89'

O. Rodríguez← S. Barreiro

90+2'

Cristian Calderón

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeonGuadalajara

Overview

70%Possession30%

28Total Shots11

16Corners7

9Fouls10

Shots

28Total Shots11

8On Target4

12Off Target4

8Blocked3

16Inside Box9

12Outside Box2

Passing

70%Possession30%

521Total Passes223

449Accurate Passes152

86%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

9Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

4Offsides1