Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Leon vs FC Juarez — Liga MX 2026

Leon
Leon
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Juarez
FC Juarez
1/25/2025Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 3Estadio León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Leon53%
×Draw24%
FC Juarez23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leon
1.69
FC Juarez
1.04

Leon creates 63% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 119 away

creates per match

Leon
1.61
FC Juarez
0.94

allows per match

Leon
1.14
FC Juarez
1.77

finishing

Leon+0.00on par
FC Juarez+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leon ↓

FC Juarez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Leon or draw
77%
Leon or FC Juarez
76%
Draw or FC Juarez
47%

Winning margin

Leon wins by 2+
28%
FC Juarez wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Leon 1+ goals
82%
Leon 2+ goals
50%
Leon 3+ goals
24%
FC Juarez 1+ goals
65%
FC Juarez 2+ goals
28%
FC Juarez 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Leon (draw refunded)
69%
FC Juarez (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leon at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.14 · 148 matches

FC Juarez away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.77 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leon attack 1.61 + FC Juarez defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.69

FC Juarez attack 0.94 + Leon defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Leon scores more
53%
level
24%
FC Juarez scores more
23%

Leon at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Leon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leon vs FC Juarez

Leon beat FC Juarez 1-0 in Liga MX on January 25, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio León in León de los Aldamas.