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FC Juarez vs Leon — Liga MX 2026

FC Juarez
FC Juarez
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Leon
Leon
9/27/2025Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 11Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

FC Juarez38%
×Draw26%
Leon36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Juarez
1.37
Leon
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 146 away

creates per match

FC Juarez
1.26
Leon
1.27

allows per match

FC Juarez
1.39
Leon
1.48

finishing

FC Juarez+0.00on par
Leon+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Juarez ↓

Leon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FC Juarez or draw
64%
FC Juarez or Leon
74%
Draw or Leon
62%

Winning margin

FC Juarez wins by 2+
17%
Leon wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FC Juarez 1+ goals
75%
FC Juarez 2+ goals
40%
FC Juarez 3+ goals
16%
Leon 1+ goals
74%
Leon 2+ goals
38%
Leon 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FC Juarez (draw refunded)
51%
Leon (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Juarez at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.39 · 119 matches

Leon away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.48 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Juarez attack 1.26 + Leon defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.37

Leon attack 1.27 + FC Juarez defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Juarez scores more
38%
level
26%
Leon scores more
36%

FC Juarez at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Juarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Juarez 2 – 0 Leon

FC Juarez beat Leon 2-0 in Liga MX on September 27, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez in Ciudad Juárez.