Leon 2–1 Club Tijuana: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Leon

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Club Tijuana

3/2/2025

Liga MX · Clausura - 10Estadio León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Leon55%

×Draw23%

Club Tijuana21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeonExpected goals in this matchClub Tijuana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.01

Leon

1.77

Club Tijuana

1.01

Leon creates 75% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 135 away

1.61

creates per match

0.88

1.14

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Leon

1.61

Club Tijuana

0.88

allows per match

Leon

1.14

Club Tijuana

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leon+0.00on par

Club Tijuana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leon ↓

Club Tijuana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Leon or draw

79%

Leon or Club Tijuana

77%

Draw or Club Tijuana

45%

Winning margin

Leon wins by 2+

31%

Club Tijuana wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Leon 1+ goals

83%

Leon 2+ goals

53%

Leon 3+ goals

26%

Club Tijuana 1+ goals

64%

Club Tijuana 2+ goals

27%

Club Tijuana 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Leon (draw refunded)

72%

Club Tijuana (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leon at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.14 · 148 matches

Club Tijuana away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.92 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leon attack 1.61 + Club Tijuana defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.77

Club Tijuana attack 0.88 + Leon defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Leon scores more

55%

level

23%

Club Tijuana scores more

21%

Leon at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Leon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff