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Club Tijuana vs Leon — Liga MX 2026

Club Tijuana
Club Tijuana
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Leon
Leon
3/4/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 10Estadio Caliente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 140+ matches

Club Tijuana44%
×Draw25%
Leon31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Tijuana
1.51
Leon
1.23

Club Tijuana creates 23% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 146 away

creates per match

Club Tijuana
1.54
Leon
1.27

allows per match

Club Tijuana
1.20
Leon
1.48

finishing

Club Tijuana+0.00on par
Leon+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Tijuana ↓

Leon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Club Tijuana or draw
69%
Club Tijuana or Leon
75%
Draw or Leon
56%

Winning margin

Club Tijuana wins by 2+
22%
Leon wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Club Tijuana 1+ goals
78%
Club Tijuana 2+ goals
44%
Club Tijuana 3+ goals
19%
Leon 1+ goals
71%
Leon 2+ goals
35%
Leon 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Club Tijuana (draw refunded)
59%
Leon (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Tijuana at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.20 · 140 matches

Leon away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.48 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Tijuana attack 1.54 + Leon defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.51

Leon attack 1.27 + Club Tijuana defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Club Tijuana scores more
44%
level
25%
Leon scores more
31%

Club Tijuana at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Club Tijuana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Club Tijuana vs Leon

Club Tijuana and Leon drew 1-1 in Liga MX on March 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Caliente in Tijuana.