Leon 2–1 Club Tijuana: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Leon

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Club Tijuana

Á. Mena 90' (pen)

W. Tesillo 26'

F. Martínez 90+8' (pen)

7/31/2021

Liga MX · Apertura - 2Estadio Leon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Leon56%

×Draw22%

Club Tijuana22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeonExpected goals in this matchClub Tijuana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.15

Leon

1.97

Club Tijuana

1.15

Leon creates 71% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.54

creates per match

0.90

1.39

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Leon

1.54

Club Tijuana

0.90

allows per match

Leon

1.39

Club Tijuana

2.40

-0.04on par

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Leon-0.04on par

Club Tijuana+0.10scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leon ↓

Club Tijuana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Leon or draw

78%

Leon or Club Tijuana

78%

Draw or Club Tijuana

44%

Winning margin

Leon wins by 2+

33%

Club Tijuana wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Leon 1+ goals

86%

Leon 2+ goals

58%

Leon 3+ goals

31%

Club Tijuana 1+ goals

68%

Club Tijuana 2+ goals

32%

Club Tijuana 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Leon (draw refunded)

72%

Club Tijuana (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leon at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.39 · 6 matches

Club Tijuana away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.40 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leon attack 1.54 + Club Tijuana defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.97

Club Tijuana attack 0.90 + Leon defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Leon scores more

56%

level

22%

Club Tijuana scores more

22%

Leon at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Leon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

W. Tesillo

Leon · D

8.5

Match Events

26'

W. Tesillo

46'

J. Meneses← L. Montes

46'

L. Rodríguez← M. Ruiz

46'

J. Cortizo← D. Barbona

55'

Ángel Mena

66'

J. Domínguez← E. Castillo

66'

C. Ortiz← M. Manotas

70'

G. Burón← E. Hernández

70'

J. Zamudio← O. Fernández

70'

V. Dávila← E. Gigliotti

71'

F. Martínez← C. Rivera

80'

S. Ormeño← D. Ramírez

90+6'

Gil Burón

90+5'

Fidel Martinez

90'

Á. MenaPenalty

90+8'

F. MartínezPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeonClub

Overview

57%Possession43%

14Total Shots7

4Corners4

14Fouls16

Shots

14Total Shots7

5On Target5

7Off Target1

2Blocked1

12Inside Box6

2Outside Box1

Passing

57%Possession43%

482Total Passes351

407Accurate Passes279

84%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls16

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides4