Leon 0–1 Club Tijuana: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Leon

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Club Tijuana

G. Bou 27'

1/21/2019

Liga MX · Clausura - 3Estadio Leon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Leon56%

×Draw22%

Club Tijuana22%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeonExpected goals in this matchClub Tijuana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.15

Leon

1.97

Club Tijuana

1.15

Leon creates 71% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.54

creates per match

0.90

1.39

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Leon

1.54

Club Tijuana

0.90

allows per match

Leon

1.39

Club Tijuana

2.40

-0.04on par

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Leon-0.04on par

Club Tijuana+0.10scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leon ↓

Club Tijuana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Leon or draw

78%

Leon or Club Tijuana

78%

Draw or Club Tijuana

44%

Winning margin

Leon wins by 2+

33%

Club Tijuana wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Leon 1+ goals

86%

Leon 2+ goals

58%

Leon 3+ goals

31%

Club Tijuana 1+ goals

68%

Club Tijuana 2+ goals

32%

Club Tijuana 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Leon (draw refunded)

72%

Club Tijuana (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leon at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.39 · 6 matches

Club Tijuana away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.40 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leon attack 1.54 + Club Tijuana defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.97

Club Tijuana attack 0.90 + Leon defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Leon scores more

56%

level

22%

Club Tijuana scores more

22%

Leon at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Leon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

G. Lajud

Club Tijuana · G

8.6

Match Events

27'

G. Bou

39'

Diego González

62'

J. Valenzuela← F. Castillo

71'

W. González← M. Herrera

71'

E. Castillo← G. Bou

76'

J. Corona← M. Bolaños

77'

87'

90'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeonClub

Overview

69%Possession31%

27Total Shots6

13Corners2

11Fouls14

Shots

27Total Shots6

7On Target2

10Off Target2

10Blocked2

18Inside Box4

9Outside Box2

Passing

69%Possession31%

539Total Passes249

449Accurate Passes162

83%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

11Fouls14

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2