Leon 1–1 CF Pachuca: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Leon

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

CF Pachuca

I. Diaz 45' (pen)

O. Idrissi 13' (pen)

8/23/2025

Liga MX · Apertura - 6Estadio León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Leon37%

×Draw26%

CF Pachuca37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeonExpected goals in this matchCF Pachuca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

Leon

1.32

CF Pachuca

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 23 away

1.38

creates per match

1.26

1.38

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Leon

1.38

CF Pachuca

1.26

allows per match

Leon

1.38

CF Pachuca

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leon+0.00on par

CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leon ↓

CF Pachuca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Leon or draw

63%

Leon or CF Pachuca

74%

Draw or CF Pachuca

63%

Winning margin

Leon wins by 2+

17%

CF Pachuca wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Leon 1+ goals

73%

Leon 2+ goals

38%

Leon 3+ goals

15%

CF Pachuca 1+ goals

73%

CF Pachuca 2+ goals

38%

CF Pachuca 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Leon (draw refunded)

50%

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leon at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.38 · 21 matches

CF Pachuca away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leon attack 1.38 + CF Pachuca defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.32

CF Pachuca attack 1.26 + Leon defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Leon scores more

37%

level

26%

CF Pachuca scores more

37%

Leon at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Leon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

O. Idrissi

CF Pachuca · M

8.5

Match Events

1'

Fernando Beltrán

10'

Brian GarcíaPenalty confirmed

13'

O. IdrissiPenalty

32'

Nicolas Fonseca

44'

Luis Quiñones

45'

I. DiazPenalty

55'

A. Bautista← L. Quinones

55'

J. Cadiz← Alemao

61'

Valentin Gauthier

62'

J. Rodriguez← I. Diaz

62'

A. Estrada← R. Echeverria

66'

V. Guzman← W. Carvalho

66'

Kenedy← A. Dominguez

74'

D. Arcila← F. Beltran Cruz

74'

E. Rodriguez← J. Cortizo

79'

Valentin Gauthier

79'

Valentin Gauthier

82'

A. Frias← A. Alvarado

87'

I. Hernandez← E. Montiel

89'

Sebastián Santos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeonCF

Overview

38%Possession62%

9Total Shots25

2Corners4

14Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots25

4On Target7

4Off Target11

1Blocked7

5Inside Box14

4Outside Box11

Passing

38%Possession62%

290Total Passes464

213Accurate Passes398

73%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls12

5Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0