CF Pachuca 2–1 Leon: Result & Stats | Liga MX

CF Pachuca

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Leon

S. Rondon 69'

O. Idrissi 45'

R. Funes Mori 84'

1/14/2026

Liga MX · Clausura - 2Estadio Miguel Hidalgo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

CF Pachuca59%

×Draw22%

Leon18%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CF PachucaExpected goals in this matchLeon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

0.93

CF Pachuca

1.86

Leon

0.93

CF Pachuca creates 100% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 22 away

1.68

creates per match

0.77

1.08

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

CF Pachuca

1.68

Leon

0.77

allows per match

CF Pachuca

1.08

Leon

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Leon+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Leon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw

82%

CF Pachuca or Leon

78%

Draw or Leon

41%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+

34%

Leon wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals

84%

CF Pachuca 2+ goals

55%

CF Pachuca 3+ goals

28%

Leon 1+ goals

61%

Leon 2+ goals

24%

Leon 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)

76%

Leon (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.08 · 25 matches

Leon away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.68 + Leon defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.86

Leon attack 0.77 + CF Pachuca defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

CF Pachuca scores more

59%

level

22%

Leon scores more

18%

CF Pachuca at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

O. Idrissi

CF Pachuca · M

8.3

Match Events

30'

O. Idrissi

45'

O. Idrissi↳ J. Cadiz

46'

A. Dominguez← Kenedy

65'

I. Moreno← J. P. Dominguez Chonteco

65'

J. Cortizo← I. Diaz

67'

V. Guzman← A. Bautista

67'

S. Rondon← J. Cadiz

69'

S. Rondon↳ A. Dominguez

70'

R. Funes Mori← F. Beltran Cruz

79'

L. Quinones← O. Idrissi

84'

R. Funes Mori↳ B. Colula

85'

D. Ramirez← B. Colula

85'

E. Rodriguez← S. Reyes

87'

P. Pedraza← E. Montiel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CFLeon

Overview

47%Possession53%

14Total Shots13

4Corners6

12Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots13

8On Target2

4Off Target6

2Blocked5

2Inside Box8

12Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

422Total Passes466

353Accurate Passes400

84%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls10

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1