Leon 4–0 CF Pachuca: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Leon

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

CF Pachuca

B. Rubio 90+6'

J. Angulo 45+5'

S. Barreiro 45+2'

I. Moreno 21'

7/11/2023

Liga MX · Apertura - 2Estadio León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Leon44%

×Draw25%

CF Pachuca31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeonExpected goals in this matchCF Pachuca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.22

Leon

1.52

CF Pachuca

1.22

Leon creates 25% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 150 away

1.61

creates per match

1.32

1.12

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Leon

1.61

CF Pachuca

1.32

allows per match

Leon

1.12

CF Pachuca

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leon+0.00on par

CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leon ↓

CF Pachuca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Leon or draw

69%

Leon or CF Pachuca

75%

Draw or CF Pachuca

56%

Winning margin

Leon wins by 2+

22%

CF Pachuca wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Leon 1+ goals

78%

Leon 2+ goals

45%

Leon 3+ goals

20%

CF Pachuca 1+ goals

70%

CF Pachuca 2+ goals

34%

CF Pachuca 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Leon (draw refunded)

59%

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leon at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.12 · 147 matches

CF Pachuca away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.43 · 150 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leon attack 1.61 + CF Pachuca defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.52

CF Pachuca attack 1.32 + Leon defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Leon scores more

44%

level

25%

CF Pachuca scores more

31%

Leon at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Leon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

J. Angulo

Leon · M

9.0

Match Events

19'

P. Pedraza← I. Luna

21'

I. Moreno↳ E. Hernández

24'

Adonis Frías

45+1'

Sergio Barreto

45+2'

S. Barreiro↳ I. Moreno

45+5'

J. Angulo↳ V. Dávila

46'

J. Berlanga← Paulino de la Fuente

53'

William Tesillo

62'

F. Ambríz← Á. Mena

62'

O. Fernández← J. Alvarado

70'

O. Rodríguez← E. Hernández

70'

D. Ramírez← I. Moreno

72'

T. Figueroa← B. Castillo

72'

I. Hernández← R. de la Rosa

73'

F. Ovelar← J. Hernández

77'

B. Rubio← V. Dávila

83'

Jaine Barreiro

90+6'

B. Rubio↳ J. Angulo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeonCF

Overview

55%Possession45%

12Total Shots12

11Corners4

17Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots12

7On Target1

4Off Target6

1Blocked5

7Inside Box6

5Outside Box6

Passing

55%Possession45%

483Total Passes399

382Accurate Passes322

79%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls12

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1