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Leon vs CF Pachuca — Liga MX 2018

Leon
Leon
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
1/26/2020Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 3Estadio León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Leon44%
×Draw25%
CF Pachuca31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leon
1.52
CF Pachuca
1.22

Leon creates 25% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 150 away

creates per match

Leon
1.61
CF Pachuca
1.32

allows per match

Leon
1.12
CF Pachuca
1.43

finishing

Leon+0.00on par
CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leon ↓

CF Pachuca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Leon or draw
69%
Leon or CF Pachuca
75%
Draw or CF Pachuca
56%

Winning margin

Leon wins by 2+
22%
CF Pachuca wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Leon 1+ goals
78%
Leon 2+ goals
45%
Leon 3+ goals
20%
CF Pachuca 1+ goals
70%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
34%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Leon (draw refunded)
59%
CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leon at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.12 · 147 matches

CF Pachuca away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.43 · 150 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leon attack 1.61 + CF Pachuca defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.52

CF Pachuca attack 1.32 + Leon defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Leon scores more
44%
level
25%
CF Pachuca scores more
31%

Leon at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Leon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leon vs CF Pachuca

Leon beat CF Pachuca 3-0 in Liga MX on January 26, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio León in León de los Aldamas.