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Leobendorf vs Krems — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Leobendorf
Leobendorf
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Krems
Krems
8/13/2022Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 3Sportplatz Leobendorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Leobendorf46%
×Draw24%
Krems30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leobendorf
1.63
Krems
1.28

Leobendorf creates 27% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 32 away

creates per match

Leobendorf
1.59
Krems
1.28

allows per match

Leobendorf
1.28
Krems
1.66

finishing

Leobendorf+0.00on par
Krems+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leobendorf ↓

Krems →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Leobendorf or draw
70%
Leobendorf or Krems
76%
Draw or Krems
54%

Winning margin

Leobendorf wins by 2+
24%
Krems wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Leobendorf 1+ goals
80%
Leobendorf 2+ goals
48%
Leobendorf 3+ goals
22%
Krems 1+ goals
72%
Krems 2+ goals
37%
Krems 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Leobendorf (draw refunded)
60%
Krems (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leobendorf at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.28 · 101 matches

Krems away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.66 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leobendorf attack 1.59 + Krems defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.63

Krems attack 1.28 + Leobendorf defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Leobendorf scores more
46%
level
24%
Krems scores more
30%

Leobendorf at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Leobendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leobendorf vs Krems

Leobendorf beat Krems 4-1 in Regionalliga - Ost on August 13, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Leobendorf in Leobendorf.