Krems 1–0 Leobendorf: Result & Stats

Krems

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Leobendorf

3/3/2023

Regionalliga - Ost · Ost - 18Sepp-Doll-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Krems44%

×Draw24%

Leobendorf32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KremsExpected goals in this matchLeobendorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.33

Krems

1.60

Leobendorf

1.33

Krems creates 20% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 101 away

1.81

creates per match

1.36

1.31

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Krems

1.81

Leobendorf

1.36

allows per match

Krems

1.31

Leobendorf

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krems+0.00on par

Leobendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krems ↓

Leobendorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Krems or draw

68%

Krems or Leobendorf

76%

Draw or Leobendorf

56%

Winning margin

Krems wins by 2+

22%

Leobendorf wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Krems 1+ goals

80%

Krems 2+ goals

47%

Krems 3+ goals

22%

Leobendorf 1+ goals

74%

Leobendorf 2+ goals

38%

Leobendorf 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Krems (draw refunded)

58%

Leobendorf (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krems at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.31 · 32 matches

Leobendorf away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.40 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krems attack 1.81 + Leobendorf defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.60

Leobendorf attack 1.36 + Krems defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Krems scores more

44%

level

24%

Leobendorf scores more

32%

Krems at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Krems will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff