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Leoben vs Bruck an der Mur — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Leoben
Leoben
FT
5 – 0
Bruck an der Mur
Bruck an der Mur
10/1/2021Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 11Stadion Donawitz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Leoben58%
×Draw20%
Bruck an der Mur22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leoben
2.29
Bruck an der Mur
1.36

Leoben creates 68% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 74 away

creates per match

Leoben
2.00
Bruck an der Mur
1.31

allows per match

Leoben
1.42
Bruck an der Mur
2.57

finishing

Leoben+0.00on par
Bruck an der Mur+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leoben ↓

Bruck an der Mur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Leoben or draw
78%
Leoben or Bruck an der Mur
80%
Draw or Bruck an der Mur
42%

Winning margin

Leoben wins by 2+
36%
Bruck an der Mur wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Leoben 1+ goals
90%
Leoben 2+ goals
66%
Leoben 3+ goals
40%
Bruck an der Mur 1+ goals
74%
Bruck an der Mur 2+ goals
39%
Bruck an der Mur 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Leoben (draw refunded)
72%
Bruck an der Mur (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leoben at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.42 · 45 matches

Bruck an der Mur away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.57 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leoben attack 2.00 + Bruck an der Mur defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.29

Bruck an der Mur attack 1.31 + Leoben defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Leoben scores more
58%
level
20%
Bruck an der Mur scores more
22%

Leoben at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Leoben will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Leoben 5–0 Bruck an der Mur

Leoben beat Bruck an der Mur 5-0 in Landesliga - Steiermark on October 1, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Donawitz in Leoben.