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Bruck an der Mur vs Leoben — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Bruck an der Mur
Bruck an der Mur
FT
1 – 4
Leoben
Leoben
5/17/2022Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 26Murinselstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Bruck an der Mur47%
×Draw21%
Leoben31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bruck an der Mur
2.04
Leoben
1.63

Bruck an der Mur creates 25% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 41 away

creates per match

Bruck an der Mur
1.92
Leoben
1.46

allows per match

Bruck an der Mur
1.79
Leoben
2.15

finishing

Bruck an der Mur+0.00on par
Leoben+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bruck an der Mur ↓

Leoben →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Bruck an der Mur or draw
69%
Bruck an der Mur or Leoben
79%
Draw or Leoben
53%

Winning margin

Bruck an der Mur wins by 2+
27%
Leoben wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bruck an der Mur 1+ goals
87%
Bruck an der Mur 2+ goals
60%
Bruck an der Mur 3+ goals
33%
Leoben 1+ goals
80%
Leoben 2+ goals
48%
Leoben 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Bruck an der Mur (draw refunded)
60%
Leoben (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bruck an der Mur at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.79 · 73 matches

Leoben away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.15 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bruck an der Mur attack 1.92 + Leoben defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.04

Leoben attack 1.46 + Bruck an der Mur defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bruck an der Mur scores more
47%
level
21%
Leoben scores more
31%

Bruck an der Mur at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bruck an der Mur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Bruck an der Mur 1–4 Leoben

Leoben beat Bruck an der Mur 4-1 in Landesliga - Steiermark on May 17, 2022.

The match was played at Murinselstadion in Bruck an der Mur.