Lens 1–0 Montpellier: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Lens

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Montpellier

W. Saïd 67'

10/15/2022

Ligue 1 · Round 11Stade Bollaert-Delelis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Lens49%

×Draw23%

Montpellier28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LensExpected goals in this matchMontpellier

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.29

Lens

1.77

Montpellier

1.29

Lens creates 37% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 6 away

1.93

creates per match

1.48

1.11

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Lens

1.93

Montpellier

1.48

allows per match

Lens

1.11

Montpellier

1.60

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

+0.85scores more than expected

finishing

Lens-0.25scores less

Montpellier+0.85scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lens ↓

Montpellier →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Lens or draw

72%

Lens or Montpellier

77%

Draw or Montpellier

51%

Winning margin

Lens wins by 2+

26%

Montpellier wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Lens 1+ goals

83%

Lens 2+ goals

53%

Lens 3+ goals

26%

Montpellier 1+ goals

72%

Montpellier 2+ goals

37%

Montpellier 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Lens (draw refunded)

63%

Montpellier (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lens at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.11 · 31 matches

Montpellier away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.60 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lens attack 1.93 + Montpellier defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.77

Montpellier attack 1.48 + Lens defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lens scores more

49%

level

23%

Montpellier scores more

28%

Lens at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

J. Cabot

Lens · M

7.5

Match Events

19'

Facundo Medina

19'

Sepe Elye Wahi

31'

Maxime Estève

59'

J. Cabot← P. Frankowski

60'

W. Saïd← L. Openda

60'

David Costa← A. Claude-Maurice

64'

W. Khazri← S. Mavididi

64'

F. Maouassa← A. Nordin

65'

Deiver Machado

67'

W. Saïd

80'

S. Delaye← E. Wahi

80'

V. Germain← T. Savanier

86'

J. Onana← S. Fofana

86'

A. Gueguin← J. Chotard

90+2'

Ł. Poręba← S. Samed

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LensMontpellier

Overview

66%Possession34%

17Total Shots8

4Corners5

12Fouls10

Shots

17Total Shots8

5On Target1

9Off Target5

3Blocked2

11Inside Box4

6Outside Box4

Passing

66%Possession34%

641Total Passes324

555Accurate Passes218

87%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2