Lens 2–0 Montpellier: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Lens

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Montpellier

I. Ganago 75'

David Costa 37'

4/20/2022

Ligue 1 · Round 33Stade Bollaert-Delelis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Lens49%

×Draw23%

Montpellier28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LensExpected goals in this matchMontpellier

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.29

Lens

1.77

Montpellier

1.29

Lens creates 37% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 6 away

1.93

creates per match

1.48

1.11

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Lens

1.93

Montpellier

1.48

allows per match

Lens

1.11

Montpellier

1.60

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

+0.85scores more than expected

finishing

Lens-0.25scores less

Montpellier+0.85scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lens ↓

Montpellier →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Lens or draw

72%

Lens or Montpellier

77%

Draw or Montpellier

51%

Winning margin

Lens wins by 2+

26%

Montpellier wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Lens 1+ goals

83%

Lens 2+ goals

53%

Lens 3+ goals

26%

Montpellier 1+ goals

72%

Montpellier 2+ goals

37%

Montpellier 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Lens (draw refunded)

63%

Montpellier (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lens at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.11 · 31 matches

Montpellier away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.60 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lens attack 1.93 + Montpellier defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.77

Montpellier attack 1.48 + Lens defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lens scores more

49%

level

23%

Montpellier scores more

28%

Lens at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

W. Fariñez

Lens · G

7.9

Match Events

37'

David Costa↳ J. Clauss

61'

F. Mollet← V. Germain

61'

T. Savanier← S. Delaye

68'

I. Ganago← A. Kalimuendo-Muinga

68'

P. Frankowski← J. Clauss

70'

74'

74'

74'

75'

I. Ganago↳ P. Frankowski

82'

Y. Cahuzac← C. Doucouré

82'

W. Saïd← F. Sotoca

88'

N. Gioacchini← R. Cabella

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LensMontpellier

Overview

49%Possession51%

12Total Shots10

5Corners3

11Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots10

5On Target4

3Off Target3

4Blocked3

7Inside Box1

5Outside Box9

Passing

49%Possession51%

507Total Passes526

429Accurate Passes446

85%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls10

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides0