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Leningradets vs Kairat Moskva — Second League - Group 2 2020

Leningradets
Leningradets
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Kairat Moskva
Kairat Moskva
7/18/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Roshchino Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Leningradets57%
×Draw24%
Kairat Moskva19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leningradets
1.72
Kairat Moskva
0.89

Leningradets creates 93% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Leningradets
2.24
Kairat Moskva
1.00

allows per match

Leningradets
0.78
Kairat Moskva
1.20

finishing

Leningradets+0.00on par
Kairat Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leningradets ↓

Kairat Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Leningradets or draw
81%
Leningradets or Kairat Moskva
76%
Draw or Kairat Moskva
43%

Winning margin

Leningradets wins by 2+
32%
Kairat Moskva wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Leningradets 1+ goals
82%
Leningradets 2+ goals
51%
Leningradets 3+ goals
25%
Kairat Moskva 1+ goals
59%
Kairat Moskva 2+ goals
22%
Kairat Moskva 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Leningradets (draw refunded)
75%
Kairat Moskva (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leningradets at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.78 · 45 matches

Kairat Moskva away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leningradets attack 2.24 + Kairat Moskva defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.72

Kairat Moskva attack 1.00 + Leningradets defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Leningradets scores more
57%
level
24%
Kairat Moskva scores more
19%

Leningradets at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Leningradets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leningradets vs Kairat Moskva

Leningradets and Kairat Moskva drew 2-2 in Second League - Group 2 on July 18, 2021.

The match was played at Roshchino Arena in Roshchino.