Kairat Moskva 2–3 Leningradets: Result & Stats

Kairat Moskva

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Leningradets

11/14/2021

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 22Central'nyj Stadion Odintsovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kairat Moskva31%

×Draw24%

Leningradets44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kairat MoskvaExpected goals in this matchLeningradets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.63

Kairat Moskva

1.33

Leningradets

1.63

Leningradets creates 23% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 46 away

1.88

creates per match

1.57

1.69

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Kairat Moskva

1.88

Leningradets

1.57

allows per match

Kairat Moskva

1.69

Leningradets

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kairat Moskva+0.00on par

Leningradets+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kairat Moskva ↓

Leningradets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Kairat Moskva or draw

56%

Kairat Moskva or Leningradets

76%

Draw or Leningradets

69%

Winning margin

Kairat Moskva wins by 2+

14%

Leningradets wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Kairat Moskva 1+ goals

74%

Kairat Moskva 2+ goals

38%

Kairat Moskva 3+ goals

15%

Leningradets 1+ goals

80%

Leningradets 2+ goals

48%

Leningradets 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Kairat Moskva (draw refunded)

41%

Leningradets (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kairat Moskva at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

Leningradets away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.78 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kairat Moskva attack 1.88 + Leningradets defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.33

Leningradets attack 1.57 + Kairat Moskva defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kairat Moskva scores more

31%

level

24%

Leningradets scores more

44%

Leningradets at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Leningradets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff