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Lenense vs Langreo II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Lenense
Lenense
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Langreo II
Langreo II
1/30/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 23Estadio ALTOSDEMONTECERRAO.COM - El Sotón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Lenense50%
×Draw24%
Langreo II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lenense
1.72
Langreo II
1.16

Lenense creates 48% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 19 away

creates per match

Lenense
1.27
Langreo II
1.00

allows per match

Lenense
1.32
Langreo II
2.16

finishing

Lenense+0.00on par
Langreo II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lenense ↓

Langreo II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Lenense or draw
74%
Lenense or Langreo II
76%
Draw or Langreo II
50%

Winning margin

Lenense wins by 2+
27%
Langreo II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lenense 1+ goals
82%
Lenense 2+ goals
51%
Lenense 3+ goals
25%
Langreo II 1+ goals
69%
Langreo II 2+ goals
32%
Langreo II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lenense (draw refunded)
66%
Langreo II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lenense at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.32 · 98 matches

Langreo II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lenense attack 1.27 + Langreo II defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.72

Langreo II attack 1.00 + Lenense defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lenense scores more
50%
level
24%
Langreo II scores more
26%

Lenense at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lenense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lenense vs Langreo II

Langreo II beat Lenense 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 30, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio ALTOSDEMONTECERRAO.COM - El Sotón in Pola de Lena.