Langreo II 0–0 Lenense: Result & Stats

Langreo II

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lenense

9/22/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 4Estadio Nuevo Ganzábal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Langreo II35%

×Draw26%

Lenense39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Langreo IIExpected goals in this matchLenense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.40

Langreo II

1.30

Lenense

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 96 away

0.89

creates per match

0.76

2.05

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Langreo II

0.89

Lenense

0.76

allows per match

Langreo II

2.05

Lenense

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Langreo II+0.00on par

Lenense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Langreo II ↓

Lenense →

0–07%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Langreo II or draw

61%

Langreo II or Lenense

74%

Draw or Lenense

65%

Winning margin

Langreo II wins by 2+

15%

Lenense wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Langreo II 1+ goals

73%

Langreo II 2+ goals

37%

Langreo II 3+ goals

14%

Lenense 1+ goals

75%

Lenense 2+ goals

41%

Lenense 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Langreo II (draw refunded)

47%

Lenense (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Langreo II at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.05 · 19 matches

Lenense away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.71 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Langreo II attack 0.89 + Lenense defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.30

Lenense attack 0.76 + Langreo II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Langreo II scores more

35%

level

26%

Lenense scores more

39%

Lenense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lenense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff