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Lenense vs Gijón Industrial — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Lenense
Lenense
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Gijón Industrial
Gijón Industrial
J. Korka 45'
V. Carreeno Prieto 5'
M. Saha 76'
L. Talbot 12'
3/15/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 26Estadio Finstral El Sotón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Lenense45%
×Draw26%
Gijón Industrial29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lenense
1.48
Gijón Industrial
1.14

Lenense creates 30% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 80 away

creates per match

Lenense
1.27
Gijón Industrial
0.95

allows per match

Lenense
1.32
Gijón Industrial
1.69

finishing

Lenense+0.00on par
Gijón Industrial+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lenense ↓

Gijón Industrial →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lenense or draw
71%
Lenense or Gijón Industrial
74%
Draw or Gijón Industrial
55%

Winning margin

Lenense wins by 2+
22%
Gijón Industrial wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lenense 1+ goals
77%
Lenense 2+ goals
43%
Lenense 3+ goals
19%
Gijón Industrial 1+ goals
68%
Gijón Industrial 2+ goals
32%
Gijón Industrial 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lenense (draw refunded)
61%
Gijón Industrial (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lenense at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.32 · 98 matches

Gijón Industrial away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.69 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lenense attack 1.27 + Gijón Industrial defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.48

Gijón Industrial attack 0.95 + Lenense defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lenense scores more
45%
level
26%
Gijón Industrial scores more
29%

Lenense at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lenense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
V. Carreeno Prieto
12'
L. Talbot
45'
J. Korka
76'
M. Saha

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Lenense 2–2 Gijón Industrial

Lenense and Gijón Industrial drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 15, 2026.

Goals: V. Carreeno Prieto (5'), L. Talbot (12'), J. Korka (45'), M. Saha (76').

The match was played at Estadio Finstral El Sotón in Pola de Lena.