Gijón Industrial 1–0 Lenense: Result & Stats

Gijón Industrial

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Lenense

José Naya 22'

3/31/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 27Estadio Santa Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Gijón Industrial49%

×Draw25%

Lenense26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gijón IndustrialExpected goals in this matchLenense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.10

Gijón Industrial

1.61

Lenense

1.10

Gijón Industrial creates 46% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 96 away

1.52

creates per match

0.76

1.44

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Gijón Industrial

1.52

Lenense

0.76

allows per match

Gijón Industrial

1.44

Lenense

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gijón Industrial+0.00on par

Lenense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gijón Industrial ↓

Lenense →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Gijón Industrial or draw

74%

Gijón Industrial or Lenense

75%

Draw or Lenense

51%

Winning margin

Gijón Industrial wins by 2+

26%

Lenense wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Gijón Industrial 1+ goals

80%

Gijón Industrial 2+ goals

48%

Gijón Industrial 3+ goals

22%

Lenense 1+ goals

67%

Lenense 2+ goals

30%

Lenense 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Gijón Industrial (draw refunded)

65%

Lenense (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Gijón Industrial at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.44 · 80 matches

Lenense away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.71 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Gijón Industrial attack 1.52 + Lenense defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.61

Lenense attack 0.76 + Gijón Industrial defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Gijón Industrial scores more

49%

level

25%

Lenense scores more

26%

Gijón Industrial at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Gijón Industrial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

José Naya

61'

Pablo Coutado← Dani Pérez

72'

Víctor Fernández← Luismi

75'

Iker Alegre← T. Souleymane

82'

J. Korbla← Borja López

89'

David Baragaño← Adrián Rueda

89'

Raúl Rivera← José Naya

Gijón

Lenense

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Naya

▼

Souleyman

Manager: Sergio Inclán

75'▲Iker Alegre←▼T. Souleymane

82'▲J. Korbla←▼Borja López

89'▲David Baragaño←▼Adrián Rueda

89'▲Raúl Rivera←▼José Naya

Gijón Industrial substitutes

AlegreKorblaBaragañoRivera

Manager: Héctor Suárez

61'▲Pablo Coutado←▼Dani Pérez

72'▲Víctor Fernández←▼Luismi

Lenense substitutes

CoutadoFernández

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Gijón Industrial 1–0 Lenense

Gijón Industrial beat Lenense 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 31, 2024.

Goals: José Naya (22').

The match was played at Estadio Santa Cruz in Gijón.

Gijón Industrial vs Lenense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Gijón Industrial 1–0 Lenense