Lenense 1–4 Covadonga: Result & Stats

Lenense

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Covadonga

M. Djoulde Bah 27'

S. Arias 46', 37'

G. Thompson 41'

M. Secades 4'

10/5/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Estadio Finstral El Sotón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Lenense27%

×Draw25%

Covadonga48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LenenseExpected goals in this matchCovadonga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.56

Lenense

1.11

Covadonga

1.56

Covadonga creates 41% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 83 away

1.27

creates per match

1.80

1.32

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Lenense

1.27

Covadonga

1.80

allows per match

Lenense

1.32

Covadonga

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lenense+0.00on par

Covadonga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lenense ↓

Covadonga →

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Lenense or draw

52%

Lenense or Covadonga

75%

Draw or Covadonga

73%

Winning margin

Lenense wins by 2+

10%

Covadonga wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Lenense 1+ goals

67%

Lenense 2+ goals

30%

Lenense 3+ goals

10%

Covadonga 1+ goals

79%

Covadonga 2+ goals

46%

Covadonga 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Lenense (draw refunded)

36%

Covadonga (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lenense at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.32 · 98 matches

Covadonga away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.96 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lenense attack 1.27 + Covadonga defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.11

Covadonga attack 1.80 + Lenense defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lenense scores more

27%

level

25%

Covadonga scores more

48%

Covadonga at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Covadonga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

37'

41'

46'

Lenense

Covadonga

Manager: Manolo Simón

Manager: David González