Covadonga 3–0 Lenense: Result & Stats

Covadonga

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lenense

Iván Elena 68'

Vicente Álvarez 53', 51'

10/27/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 8Estadio Juan Antonio Alvarez Rabanal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Covadonga63%

×Draw22%

Lenense15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CovadongaExpected goals in this matchLenense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

0.77

Covadonga

1.85

Lenense

0.77

Covadonga creates 140% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 96 away

1.99

creates per match

0.76

0.78

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Covadonga

1.99

Lenense

0.76

allows per match

Covadonga

0.78

Lenense

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Covadonga+0.00on par

Lenense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Covadonga ↓

Lenense →

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Covadonga or draw

85%

Covadonga or Lenense

78%

Draw or Lenense

37%

Winning margin

Covadonga wins by 2+

37%

Lenense wins by 2+

Team goals

Covadonga 1+ goals

84%

Covadonga 2+ goals

55%

Covadonga 3+ goals

28%

Lenense 1+ goals

54%

Lenense 2+ goals

18%

Lenense 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Covadonga (draw refunded)

81%

Lenense (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Covadonga at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.78 · 85 matches

Lenense away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.71 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Covadonga attack 1.99 + Lenense defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.85

Lenense attack 0.76 + Covadonga defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

Covadonga scores more

63%

level

22%

Lenense scores more

15%

Covadonga at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Covadonga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Daniel Palacio← Sergio Madrigal

51'

Vicente Álvarez

53'

Vicente Álvarez

55'

Ian Rodríguez← Borja Alonso

64'

Antonio García← Guillermo Vaamonde

64'

Pablo Coutado← Borja Sierra

68'

Iván Elena

71'

Soham Bhagawati← Juan Laine

73'

David Armada← Iván Elena

83'

Alejandro Abril← Carlos Figar

83'

Ibai Neches← Monasterio

87'

Jairo Vidal← Vicente Álvarez

Covadonga

Lenense

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Álvarez

Nino

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: David González

46'▲Daniel Palacio←▼Sergio Madrigal

55'▲Ian Rodríguez←▼Borja Alonso

73'▲David Armada←▼Iván Elena

87'▲Jairo Vidal←▼Vicente Álvarez

Covadonga substitutes

PalacioRodríguezArmadaVidal

Manager: Manolo Simón

64'▲Antonio García←▼Guillermo Vaamonde

64'▲Pablo Coutado←▼Borja Sierra

71'▲Soham Bhagawati←▼Juan Laine

83'▲Alejandro Abril←▼Carlos Figar

83'▲Ibai Neches←▼Monasterio

Lenense substitutes

GarcíaCoutadoBhagawatiAbrilNeches

Match Recap: Covadonga vs Lenense

Covadonga beat Lenense 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 27, 2024.

Goals: Vicente Álvarez (51', 53'), Iván Elena (68').

The match was played at Estadio Juan Antonio Alvarez Rabanal in Oviedo.

Covadonga vs Lenense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Covadonga vs Lenense