Lenense 3–1 Barcia: Result & Stats

Lenense

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Barcia

Jandro 86'

Pablo Coutado 78'

Julen Escudero 24' (OG)

Marcos Castillo 40'

2/4/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Estadio ALTOSDEMONTECERRAO.COM - El Sotón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lenense54%

×Draw24%

Barcia22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LenenseExpected goals in this matchBarcia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.99

Lenense

1.70

Barcia

0.99

Lenense creates 72% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 17 away

1.27

creates per match

0.65

1.32

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Lenense

1.27

Barcia

0.65

allows per match

Lenense

1.32

Barcia

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lenense+0.00on par

Barcia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lenense ↓

Barcia →

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Lenense or draw

78%

Lenense or Barcia

76%

Draw or Barcia

46%

Winning margin

Lenense wins by 2+

30%

Barcia wins by 2+

Team goals

Lenense 1+ goals

82%

Lenense 2+ goals

51%

Lenense 3+ goals

24%

Barcia 1+ goals

63%

Barcia 2+ goals

26%

Barcia 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Lenense (draw refunded)

71%

Barcia (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lenense at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.32 · 98 matches

Barcia away — creates 0.65, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lenense attack 1.27 + Barcia defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.70

Barcia attack 0.65 + Lenense defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Lenense scores more

54%

level

24%

Barcia scores more

22%

Lenense at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lenense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

Julen EscuderoOwn goal

40'

Marcos Castillo

56'

Gabriel Ajuchi← Simon Szczepanik

61'

Jandro← Borja Sierra

68'

Adrián← Manu Ameijide

70'

Dani Pérez← Luismi

78'

Pablo Coutado

83'

Pablo Colunga← Marcos Castillo

86'

Jandro

90'

Berto Fernández← Pablo Coutado

90'

Víctor Fernández← Michu

Lenense

Barcia

🥅

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Héctor Suárez

61'▲Jandro←▼Borja Sierra

70'▲Dani Pérez←▼Luismi

90'▲Berto Fernández←▼Pablo Coutado

90'▲Víctor Fernández←▼Michu

Lenense substitutes

JandroPérezFernándezFernández

Manager: Pablo Barbón

56'▲Gabriel Ajuchi←▼Simon Szczepanik

68'▲Adrián←▼Manu Ameijide

83'▲Pablo Colunga←▼Marcos Castillo

Barcia substitutes

AjuchiAdriánColunga

Match Recap: Lenense vs Barcia

Lenense beat Barcia 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 4, 2024.

Goals: Julen Escudero (24' o.g.), Marcos Castillo (40'), Pablo Coutado (78'), Jandro (86').

The match was played at Estadio ALTOSDEMONTECERRAO.COM - El Sotón in Pola de Lena.

Lenense vs Barcia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Lenense vs Barcia