Barcia 0–2 Lenense: Result & Stats

Barcia

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Lenense

Pablo Sánchez 48'

Borja Sierra 46'

9/17/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2Campo de fútbol San Sebastián

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Barcia29%

×Draw24%

Lenense47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarciaExpected goals in this matchLenense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.71

Barcia

1.29

Lenense

1.71

Lenense creates 33% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 96 away

0.88

creates per match

0.76

2.65

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Barcia

0.88

Lenense

0.76

allows per match

Barcia

2.65

Lenense

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barcia+0.00on par

Lenense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcia ↓

Lenense →

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Barcia or draw

53%

Barcia or Lenense

76%

Draw or Lenense

71%

Winning margin

Barcia wins by 2+

12%

Lenense wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Barcia 1+ goals

72%

Barcia 2+ goals

37%

Barcia 3+ goals

14%

Lenense 1+ goals

82%

Lenense 2+ goals

51%

Lenense 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Barcia (draw refunded)

38%

Lenense (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Barcia at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Lenense away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.71 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Barcia attack 0.88 + Lenense defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.29

Lenense attack 0.76 + Barcia defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Barcia scores more

29%

level

24%

Lenense scores more

47%

Lenense at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lenense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Borja Sierra

48'

Pablo Sánchez

54'

Marcos Castillo← José González

54'

Gabriel Ajuchi← Simon Szczepanik

61'

Jandro← Lucas Rodríguez

74'

Julen Escudero← Enol Pérez

75'

Pablo Coutado← Borja Sierra

75'

Mateo González← Sergio González

81'

Pablo Colunga← Ridwanullah

81'

Diego Gulin← Cristian Bouso

90'

Dani Pérez← Luismi

Barcia

Lenense

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Pablo Barbón

54'▲Marcos Castillo←▼José González

54'▲Gabriel Ajuchi←▼Simon Szczepanik

74'▲Julen Escudero←▼Enol Pérez

81'▲Pablo Colunga←▼Ridwanullah

81'▲Diego Gulin←▼Cristian Bouso

Barcia substitutes

CastilloAjuchiEscuderoColungaGulin

Manager: Héctor Suárez

61'▲Jandro←▼Lucas Rodríguez

75'▲Pablo Coutado←▼Borja Sierra

75'▲Mateo González←▼Sergio González

90'▲Dani Pérez←▼Luismi

Lenense substitutes

JandroCoutadoGonzálezPérez