Lendorf 1–1 Gurten: Result & Stats

Lendorf

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Gurten

F. Hoi 39'

R. Wirth 6'

11/6/2018

Regionalliga - Mitte · Round 14Thomas-Morgenstern-Arena (Lendorf)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lendorf26%

×Draw23%

Gurten51%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LendorfExpected goals in this matchGurten

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.81

Lendorf

1.23

Gurten

1.81

Gurten creates 47% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 110 away

1.29

creates per match

1.56

2.07

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Lendorf

1.29

Gurten

1.56

allows per match

Lendorf

2.07

Gurten

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lendorf+0.00on par

Gurten+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lendorf ↓

Gurten →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Lendorf or draw

49%

Lendorf or Gurten

77%

Draw or Gurten

74%

Winning margin

Lendorf wins by 2+

11%

Gurten wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Lendorf 1+ goals

71%

Lendorf 2+ goals

35%

Lendorf 3+ goals

13%

Gurten 1+ goals

84%

Gurten 2+ goals

54%

Gurten 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Lendorf (draw refunded)

34%

Gurten (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lendorf at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

Gurten away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.17 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lendorf attack 1.29 + Gurten defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.23

Gurten attack 1.56 + Lendorf defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lendorf scores more

26%

level

23%

Gurten scores more

51%

Gurten at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Gurten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

R. Wirth

39'

F. Hoi

66'

I. Grabovac← A. Kouskous

77'

Martin Morgenstern← D. Leitner

86'

J. Reitter← M. Kolakovic

Lendorf

Gurten

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: A. Morgenstern

77'▲Martin Morgenstern←▼D. Leitner

Lendorf substitutes

MorgensternKruseHuberNagy

Manager: P. Madritsch

66'▲I. Grabovac←▼A. Kouskous

86'▲J. Reitter←▼M. Kolakovic

Gurten substitutes

GrabovacReitterÖhlböckSchützWittner

Match Recap: Lendorf vs Gurten

Lendorf and Gurten drew 1-1 in Regionalliga - Mitte on November 6, 2018.

Goals: R. Wirth (6'), F. Hoi (39').

The match was played at Thomas-Morgenstern-Arena (Lendorf).

Lendorf vs Gurten — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Lendorf vs Gurten