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Gurten vs Lendorf — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Gurten
Gurten
FT
4 – 0
Lendorf
Lendorf
5/31/2019Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Round 29Park21-Arena Gurten (Gurten)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Gurten69%
×Draw18%
Lendorf13%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gurten
2.34
Lendorf
0.89

Gurten creates 163% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 15 away

creates per match

Gurten
1.75
Lendorf
0.93

allows per match

Gurten
0.85
Lendorf
2.93

finishing

Gurten+0.00on par
Lendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gurten ↓

Lendorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Gurten or draw
87%
Gurten or Lendorf
82%
Draw or Lendorf
31%

Winning margin

Gurten wins by 2+
46%
Lendorf wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Gurten 1+ goals
90%
Gurten 2+ goals
67%
Gurten 3+ goals
41%
Lendorf 1+ goals
59%
Lendorf 2+ goals
22%
Lendorf 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Gurten (draw refunded)
84%
Lendorf (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gurten at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.85 · 110 matches

Lendorf away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gurten attack 1.75 + Lendorf defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.34

Lendorf attack 0.93 + Gurten defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Gurten scores more
69%
level
18%
Lendorf scores more
13%

Gurten at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Gurten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: Gurten 4–0 Lendorf

Gurten beat Lendorf 4-0 in Regionalliga - Mitte on May 31, 2019.

The match was played at Park21-Arena Gurten (Gurten).