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Leixões U23 vs Benfica U23 — Taça Revelação U23 2020

Leixões U23
Leixões U23
FT
1 – 2
Benfica U23
Benfica U23advanced
4/14/2021Taça Revelação U23Taça Revelação U23 · Quarter-finalsEstádio do Mar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Leixões U2332%
×Draw24%
Benfica U2344%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leixões U23
1.42
Benfica U23
1.69

Benfica U23 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

creates per match

Leixões U23
1.33
Benfica U23
1.70

allows per match

Leixões U23
1.67
Benfica U23
1.50

finishing

Leixões U23+0.00on par
Benfica U23+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leixões U23 ↓

Benfica U23 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Leixões U23 or draw
56%
Leixões U23 or Benfica U23
76%
Draw or Benfica U23
68%

Winning margin

Leixões U23 wins by 2+
15%
Benfica U23 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Leixões U23 1+ goals
76%
Leixões U23 2+ goals
41%
Leixões U23 3+ goals
17%
Benfica U23 1+ goals
82%
Benfica U23 2+ goals
50%
Benfica U23 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Leixões U23 (draw refunded)
42%
Benfica U23 (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leixões U23 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Benfica U23 away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leixões U23 attack 1.33 + Benfica U23 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Benfica U23 attack 1.70 + Leixões U23 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Leixões U23 scores more
32%
level
24%
Benfica U23 scores more
44%

Benfica U23 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Benfica U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leixões U23 vs Benfica U23

Benfica U23 beat Leixões U23 2-1 in Taça Revelação U23 on April 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio do Mar in Matosinhos.