Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Benfica U23 vs Leixões U23 — Taça Revelação U23 2020

Benfica U23
Benfica U23
FT
1 – 1
Leixões U23
Leixões U23
4/20/2021Taça Revelação U23Taça Revelação U23 · Quarter-finalsCaixa Futebol Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Benfica U2361%
×Draw22%
Leixões U2318%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica U23
1.94
Leixões U23
0.94

Benfica U23 creates 106% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Benfica U23
2.63
Leixões U23
1.25

allows per match

Benfica U23
0.63
Leixões U23
1.25

finishing

Benfica U23+0.00on par
Leixões U23+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica U23 ↓

Leixões U23 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Benfica U23 or draw
82%
Benfica U23 or Leixões U23
78%
Draw or Leixões U23
39%

Winning margin

Benfica U23 wins by 2+
36%
Leixões U23 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Benfica U23 1+ goals
86%
Benfica U23 2+ goals
58%
Benfica U23 3+ goals
30%
Leixões U23 1+ goals
61%
Leixões U23 2+ goals
24%
Leixões U23 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Benfica U23 (draw refunded)
77%
Leixões U23 (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica U23 at home — creates 2.63, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Leixões U23 away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica U23 attack 2.63 + Leixões U23 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.94

Leixões U23 attack 1.25 + Benfica U23 defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Benfica U23 scores more
61%
level
22%
Leixões U23 scores more
18%

Benfica U23 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Benfica U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça Revelação U23: Benfica U23 1–1 Leixões U23

Benfica U23 and Leixões U23 drew 1-1 in Taça Revelação U23 on April 20, 2021.

The match was played at Caixa Futebol Campus in Seixal.