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Leioa vs Cultural Leonesa — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Leioa
Leioa
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
Cultural Leonesa
Cultural Leonesa
3/7/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 28Estadio Sarriena 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Leioa37%
×Draw27%
Cultural Leonesa36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leioa
1.29
Cultural Leonesa
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 15 away

creates per match

Leioa
1.25
Cultural Leonesa
1.33

allows per match

Leioa
1.21
Cultural Leonesa
1.33

finishing

Leioa+0.00on par
Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leioa ↓

Cultural Leonesa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Leioa or draw
64%
Leioa or Cultural Leonesa
73%
Draw or Cultural Leonesa
63%

Winning margin

Leioa wins by 2+
16%
Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Leioa 1+ goals
72%
Leioa 2+ goals
37%
Leioa 3+ goals
14%
Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals
72%
Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals
36%
Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Leioa (draw refunded)
51%
Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leioa at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

Cultural Leonesa away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leioa attack 1.25 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.33 + Leioa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Leioa scores more
37%
level
27%
Cultural Leonesa scores more
36%

Leioa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Leioa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leioa vs Cultural Leonesa

Cultural Leonesa beat Leioa 4-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 7, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Sarriena 4 in Leioa.