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Cultural Leonesa vs Leioa — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Cultural Leonesa
Cultural Leonesa
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Leioa
Leioa
10/20/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 9Estadio Municipal Reino de León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Cultural Leonesa67%
×Draw21%
Leioa12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cultural Leonesa
1.87
Leioa
0.63

Cultural Leonesa creates 197% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 28 away

creates per match

Cultural Leonesa
1.92
Leioa
0.64

allows per match

Cultural Leonesa
0.62
Leioa
1.82

finishing

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par
Leioa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Leonesa ↓

Leioa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cultural Leonesa or draw
88%
Cultural Leonesa or Leioa
79%
Draw or Leioa
33%

Winning margin

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+
41%
Leioa wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals
85%
Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals
56%
Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals
29%
Leioa 1+ goals
47%
Leioa 2+ goals
13%
Leioa 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)
85%
Leioa (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cultural Leonesa at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Leioa away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.92 + Leioa defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.87

Leioa attack 0.64 + Cultural Leonesa defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Cultural Leonesa scores more
67%
level
21%
Leioa scores more
12%

Cultural Leonesa at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cultural Leonesa vs Leioa

Cultural Leonesa beat Leioa 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 20, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Reino de León in León.