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Leioa vs Aurrerá Vitoria — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Leioa
Leioa
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Aurrerá Vitoria
Aurrerá Vitoria
11/8/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 10Estadio Sarriena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Leioa57%
×Draw23%
Aurrerá Vitoria20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leioa
1.79
Aurrerá Vitoria
0.95

Leioa creates 88% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 32 away

creates per match

Leioa
1.79
Aurrerá Vitoria
0.81

allows per match

Leioa
1.08
Aurrerá Vitoria
1.78

finishing

Leioa+0.00on par
Aurrerá Vitoria+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leioa ↓

Aurrerá Vitoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Leioa or draw
80%
Leioa or Aurrerá Vitoria
77%
Draw or Aurrerá Vitoria
43%

Winning margin

Leioa wins by 2+
32%
Aurrerá Vitoria wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Leioa 1+ goals
83%
Leioa 2+ goals
53%
Leioa 3+ goals
26%
Aurrerá Vitoria 1+ goals
61%
Aurrerá Vitoria 2+ goals
25%
Aurrerá Vitoria 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Leioa (draw refunded)
74%
Aurrerá Vitoria (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leioa at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.08 · 86 matches

Aurrerá Vitoria away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leioa attack 1.79 + Aurrerá Vitoria defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.79

Aurrerá Vitoria attack 0.81 + Leioa defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Leioa scores more
57%
level
23%
Aurrerá Vitoria scores more
20%

Leioa at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Leioa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leioa vs Aurrerá Vitoria

Leioa beat Aurrerá Vitoria 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on November 8, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Sarriena in Leioa.