Aurrerá Vitoria 1–2 Leioa: Result & Stats

Aurrerá Vitoria

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Leioa

10/16/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 6Estadio Olaranbe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Aurrerá Vitoria31%

×Draw27%

Leioa42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aurrerá VitoriaExpected goals in this matchLeioa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.32

Aurrerá Vitoria

1.09

Leioa

1.32

Leioa creates 21% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 87 away

1.03

creates per match

1.20

1.44

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Aurrerá Vitoria

1.03

Leioa

1.20

allows per match

Aurrerá Vitoria

1.44

Leioa

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aurrerá Vitoria+0.00on par

Leioa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aurrerá Vitoria ↓

Leioa →

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Aurrerá Vitoria or draw

58%

Aurrerá Vitoria or Leioa

73%

Draw or Leioa

69%

Winning margin

Aurrerá Vitoria wins by 2+

12%

Leioa wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Aurrerá Vitoria 1+ goals

66%

Aurrerá Vitoria 2+ goals

30%

Aurrerá Vitoria 3+ goals

10%

Leioa 1+ goals

73%

Leioa 2+ goals

38%

Leioa 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Aurrerá Vitoria (draw refunded)

42%

Leioa (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Aurrerá Vitoria at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

Leioa away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.15 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Aurrerá Vitoria attack 1.03 + Leioa defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.09

Leioa attack 1.20 + Aurrerá Vitoria defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Aurrerá Vitoria scores more

31%

level

27%

Leioa scores more

42%

Leioa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Leioa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff