Leioa 1–1 Athletic Club II: Result & Stats

Leioa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Athletic Club II

11/22/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 6Estadio Sarriena 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Leioa39%

×Draw27%

Athletic Club II34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeioaExpected goals in this matchAthletic Club II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.21

Leioa

1.33

Athletic Club II

1.21

Leioa creates 10% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 45 away

1.25

creates per match

1.20

1.21

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Leioa

1.25

Athletic Club II

1.20

allows per match

Leioa

1.21

Athletic Club II

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leioa+0.00on par

Athletic Club II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leioa ↓

Athletic Club II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Leioa or draw

66%

Leioa or Athletic Club II

73%

Draw or Athletic Club II

61%

Winning margin

Leioa wins by 2+

18%

Athletic Club II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Leioa 1+ goals

74%

Leioa 2+ goals

38%

Leioa 3+ goals

15%

Athletic Club II 1+ goals

70%

Athletic Club II 2+ goals

34%

Athletic Club II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Leioa (draw refunded)

54%

Athletic Club II (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leioa at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

Athletic Club II away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.42 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leioa attack 1.25 + Athletic Club II defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.33

Athletic Club II attack 1.20 + Leioa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Leioa scores more

39%

level

27%

Athletic Club II scores more

34%

Leioa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Leioa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff