Athletic Club II 4–0 Leioa: Result & Stats

Athletic Club II

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Leioa

Iñigo Baqué 90+1', 87'

Juan Artola 56'

Jon Cabo 3'

3/17/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Instalaciones de Lezama Campo 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Athletic Club II57%

×Draw24%

Leioa19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Athletic Club IIExpected goals in this matchLeioa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.85

Athletic Club II

1.70

Leioa

0.85

Athletic Club II creates 100% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 28 away

1.57

creates per match

0.64

1.06

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Athletic Club II

1.57

Leioa

0.64

allows per match

Athletic Club II

1.06

Leioa

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Athletic Club II+0.00on par

Leioa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic Club II ↓

Leioa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Athletic Club II or draw

81%

Athletic Club II or Leioa

76%

Draw or Leioa

43%

Winning margin

Athletic Club II wins by 2+

32%

Leioa wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Athletic Club II 1+ goals

82%

Athletic Club II 2+ goals

51%

Athletic Club II 3+ goals

24%

Leioa 1+ goals

57%

Leioa 2+ goals

21%

Leioa 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Athletic Club II (draw refunded)

76%

Leioa (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic Club II at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.06 · 47 matches

Leioa away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic Club II attack 1.57 + Leioa defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.70

Leioa attack 0.64 + Athletic Club II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Athletic Club II scores more

57%

level

24%

Leioa scores more

19%

Athletic Club II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Athletic Club II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

Jon Cabo

56'

Juan Artola

59'

Jon Guruzeta← San Bartolomé

59'

Y. Diarra← Jon Cabo

62'

Arturo Segado← Mikel Juaristi

68'

Xabi Mayordomo← Roger Marcè

71'

Antxón Jaso← Imanol García

71'

Iñigo Baqué← Andoni Tascón

80'

Julen Bernaola← Nico Serrano

81'

Adrián Vich← Aitor Morcillo

81'

Xabi Etxebarría← Asier Goti

87'

Iñigo Baqué

90+1'

Iñigo Baqué

Athletic

Leioa

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Joseba Etxeberria

59'▲Jon Guruzeta←▼San Bartolomé

59'▲Y. Diarra←▼Jon Cabo

71'▲Antxón Jaso←▼Imanol García

71'▲Iñigo Baqué←▼Andoni Tascón

80'▲Julen Bernaola←▼Nico Serrano

Athletic Club II substitutes

GuruzetaDiarraJasoBaquéBernaolaCampoGoti

Manager: Iker Bilbao

62'▲Arturo Segado←▼Mikel Juaristi

68'▲Xabi Mayordomo←▼Roger Marcè

81'▲Adrián Vich←▼Aitor Morcillo

81'▲Xabi Etxebarría←▼Asier Goti

Leioa substitutes

SegadoMayordomoVichEtxebarríaSánchezSang-MinSantibáñez

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Athletic Club II 4–0 Leioa

Athletic Club II beat Leioa 4-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 17, 2021.

Goals: Jon Cabo (3'), Juan Artola (56'), Iñigo Baqué (87', 90+1').

The match was played at Instalaciones de Lezama Campo 2 in Lezama.

Athletic Club II vs Leioa — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Athletic Club II 4–0 Leioa