Leiknir R. 0–2 Keflavik: Result & Stats | 1. Deild

Leiknir R.

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Keflavik

F. Elvarsson 67'

K. Sigfusson 39'

7/29/2025

1. Deild · Round 15Leiknisvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Leiknir R.37%

×Draw23%

Keflavik40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leiknir R.Expected goals in this matchKeflavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.70

Leiknir R.

1.62

Keflavik

1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 15 away

1.24

creates per match

1.87

1.52

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Leiknir R.

1.24

Keflavik

1.87

allows per match

Leiknir R.

1.52

Keflavik

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leiknir R.+0.00on par

Keflavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leiknir R. ↓

Keflavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Leiknir R. or draw

60%

Leiknir R. or Keflavik

77%

Draw or Keflavik

63%

Winning margin

Leiknir R. wins by 2+

18%

Keflavik wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Leiknir R. 1+ goals

80%

Leiknir R. 2+ goals

48%

Leiknir R. 3+ goals

22%

Keflavik 1+ goals

82%

Keflavik 2+ goals

51%

Keflavik 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Leiknir R. (draw refunded)

48%

Keflavik (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leiknir R. at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.52 · 25 matches

Keflavik away — creates 1.87, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leiknir R. attack 1.24 + Keflavik defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.62

Keflavik attack 1.87 + Leiknir R. defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Leiknir R. scores more

37%

level

23%

Keflavik scores more

40%

Keflavik at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Keflavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

K. Sigfusson

67'

F. Elvarsson

67'

D. Gunnarsson

68'

D. Gunnarsson← D. Gunnarsson

84'

B. Bogdanovic← B. Bogdanovic

84'

A. Arnarson← A. Arnarson

84'

E. Bjarnason← E. Bjarnason

90+1'

S. Veseli

90+1'

K. Sigfusson← K. Sigfusson

90+1'

M. Al Ghoul← M. Al Ghoul

90+3'

M. Mudrazija

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff