Leiknir R. 0–0 Keflavik: Result & Stats | 1. Deild

Leiknir R.

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Keflavik

8/14/2024

1. Deild · Round 17Leiknisvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Leiknir R.32%

×Draw24%

Keflavik44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leiknir R.Expected goals in this matchKeflavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.66

Leiknir R.

1.39

Keflavik

1.66

Keflavik creates 19% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 22 away

1.19

creates per match

1.86

1.46

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Leiknir R.

1.19

Keflavik

1.86

allows per match

Leiknir R.

1.46

Keflavik

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leiknir R.+0.00on par

Keflavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leiknir R. ↓

Keflavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Leiknir R. or draw

56%

Leiknir R. or Keflavik

76%

Draw or Keflavik

68%

Winning margin

Leiknir R. wins by 2+

14%

Keflavik wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Leiknir R. 1+ goals

75%

Leiknir R. 2+ goals

40%

Leiknir R. 3+ goals

16%

Keflavik 1+ goals

81%

Keflavik 2+ goals

49%

Keflavik 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Leiknir R. (draw refunded)

42%

Keflavik (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leiknir R. at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

Keflavik away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leiknir R. attack 1.19 + Keflavik defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.39

Keflavik attack 1.86 + Leiknir R. defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Leiknir R. scores more

32%

level

24%

Keflavik scores more

44%

Keflavik at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Keflavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'

M. Zivkovic← K. Hlífarsson

66'

A. Einarsson

70'

F. Elvarsson← S. Friðriksson

70'

M. Diaw← A. Guðmundsson

70'

V. Hákonarson← K. Sigfússon

78'

A. Kristinsson

83'

R. Eysteinsson← S. Kamel

87'

S. Magnusson

88'

F. Elvarsson

90+2'

Arnór Aðalsteinsson← S. Björnsson

Leiknir

Keflavik

Manager: O. Kristjánsson

62'▲M. Zivkovic←▼K. Hlífarsson

90+2'▲Arnór Aðalsteinsson←▼S. Björnsson

Leiknir R. substitutes

ZivkovicAðalsteinssonArnaldarsonJónssonÁgústssonFernandesBilic

Manager: H. Guðmundsson

70'▲F. Elvarsson←▼S. Friðriksson

70'▲M. Diaw←▼A. Guðmundsson

70'▲V. Hákonarson←▼K. Sigfússon

83'▲R. Eysteinsson←▼S. Kamel

Keflavik substitutes

ElvarssonDiawHákonarsonEysteinssonHákonarsonSævarssonGissurarson

Match Recap: Leiknir R. vs Keflavik

Leiknir R. and Keflavik drew 0-0 in 1. Deild on August 14, 2024.

The match was played at Leiknisvöllur in Reykjavík.

Leiknir R. vs Keflavik — 1. Deild 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Leiknir R. vs Keflavik