Leiknir R. 2–6 Grindavik: Result & Stats | 1. Deild

Leiknir R.

FT

2 – 6

HT: 0 – 3

Grindavik

D. Gunnarsson 90+2'

S. Veseli 76'

S. Guðmundsson 72'

A. Róbertsson 67', 3'

K. Pálsson 65'

B. Hermannsson 45', 8' (pen)

5/30/2025

1. Deild · Round 5Leiknisvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Leiknir R.41%

×Draw23%

Grindavik36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leiknir R.Expected goals in this matchGrindavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.63

Leiknir R.

1.74

Grindavik

1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 21 away

1.29

creates per match

1.71

1.54

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Leiknir R.

1.29

Grindavik

1.71

allows per match

Leiknir R.

1.54

Grindavik

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leiknir R.+0.00on par

Grindavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leiknir R. ↓

Grindavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Leiknir R. or draw

64%

Leiknir R. or Grindavik

77%

Draw or Grindavik

59%

Winning margin

Leiknir R. wins by 2+

21%

Grindavik wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Leiknir R. 1+ goals

82%

Leiknir R. 2+ goals

52%

Leiknir R. 3+ goals

25%

Grindavik 1+ goals

80%

Grindavik 2+ goals

48%

Grindavik 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Leiknir R. (draw refunded)

53%

Grindavik (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leiknir R. at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.54 · 24 matches

Grindavik away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.19 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leiknir R. attack 1.29 + Grindavik defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.74

Grindavik attack 1.71 + Leiknir R. defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Leiknir R. scores more

41%

level

23%

Grindavik scores more

36%

Leiknir R. at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Leiknir R. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

A. Róbertsson

8'

B. HermannssonPenalty

45'

B. Hermannsson

46'

K. Hlífarsson← R. Árnason

46'

S. Veseli← A. Kjartansson

64'

A. Einarsson← J. Tjörvason

64'

D. Gunnarsson← S. Björnsson

65'

K. Pálsson

67'

A. Róbertsson

68'

E. Rúnarsson← A. Róbertsson

68'

L. Ólafsson← Á. Finnbogason

72'

S. Guðmundsson

76'

S. Veseli

80'

F. Guðmundsson← S. Guðmundsson

86'

A. Arnarsson← B. Hermannsson

86'

A. Júlíusson← I. Sigurðsson

90+2'

D. Gunnarsson

Leiknir

Grindavik

Niemelä

Nieblas

Hauksson

⚽

▼

Guðmundss

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: O. Kristjánsson

46'▲K. Hlífarsson←▼R. Árnason

46'▲S. Veseli←▼A. Kjartansson

64'▲A. Einarsson←▼J. Tjörvason

64'▲D. Gunnarsson←▼S. Björnsson

Leiknir R. substitutes

HlífarssonVeseliEinarssonGunnarssonJónssonPéturssonVladisavljević

Manager: H. Hródmarsson

68'▲E. Rúnarsson←▼A. Róbertsson

68'▲L. Ólafsson←▼Á. Finnbogason

80'▲F. Guðmundsson←▼S. Guðmundsson

86'▲A. Arnarsson←▼B. Hermannsson

86'▲A. Júlíusson←▼I. Sigurðsson

Grindavik substitutes

RúnarssonÓlafssonGuðmundssonArnarssonJúlíussonSigtryggssonTómasson

Match Recap: Leiknir R. vs Grindavik

Grindavik beat Leiknir R. 6-2 in 1. Deild on May 30, 2025.

Goals: A. Róbertsson (3', 67'), B. Hermannsson (8' pen, 45'), K. Pálsson (65'), S. Guðmundsson (72'), S. Veseli (76'), D. Gunnarsson (90+2').

The match was played at Leiknisvöllur in Reykjavík.

Leiknir R. vs Grindavik — 1. Deild 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Leiknir R. vs Grindavik