Leiknir R. 2–3 Grindavik: Result & Stats | 1. Deild

Leiknir R.

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Grindavik

R. Árnason 89'

S. Veseli 25'

D. Gunnarsson 84'

Dennis Nieblas 59'

E. Ingvarsson 4'

6/15/2024

1. Deild · Round 7Leiknisvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Leiknir R.45%

×Draw23%

Grindavik32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leiknir R.Expected goals in this matchGrindavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.51

Leiknir R.

1.81

Grindavik

1.51

Leiknir R. creates 20% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 30 away

1.24

creates per match

1.50

1.52

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Leiknir R.

1.24

Grindavik

1.50

allows per match

Leiknir R.

1.52

Grindavik

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leiknir R.+0.00on par

Grindavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leiknir R. ↓

Grindavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Leiknir R. or draw

68%

Leiknir R. or Grindavik

77%

Draw or Grindavik

55%

Winning margin

Leiknir R. wins by 2+

24%

Grindavik wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Leiknir R. 1+ goals

84%

Leiknir R. 2+ goals

54%

Leiknir R. 3+ goals

27%

Grindavik 1+ goals

78%

Grindavik 2+ goals

44%

Grindavik 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Leiknir R. (draw refunded)

58%

Grindavik (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leiknir R. at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.52 · 25 matches

Grindavik away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leiknir R. attack 1.24 + Grindavik defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.81

Grindavik attack 1.50 + Leiknir R. defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Leiknir R. scores more

45%

level

23%

Grindavik scores more

32%

Leiknir R. at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Leiknir R. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

E. Ingvarsson

25'

S. Veseli

37'

S. Jónsson← H. Sigurðsson

40'

43'

47'

48'

57'

D. Gunnarsson← K. Konráðsson

59'

Dennis Nieblas

61'

M. Turkus

71'

K. Gurung← J. Barkarson

71'

O. Sowe← S. Veseli

71'

Þ. Jónsson← A. Einarsson

75'

S. Thasaphong← E. Ingvarsson

83'

S. Bilic← S. Björnsson

83'

Éric Vales← K. Quee

84'

D. Gunnarsson

89'

R. Árnason

Leiknir

Grindavik

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: V. Jósepsson

37'▲S. Jónsson←▼H. Sigurðsson

71'▲K. Gurung←▼J. Barkarson

71'▲O. Sowe←▼S. Veseli

71'▲Þ. Jónsson←▼A. Einarsson

83'▲S. Bilic←▼S. Björnsson

Leiknir R. substitutes

JónssonGurungSoweJónssonBilicArnaldarsonZivkovic

Manager: B. Gunnarsson

57'▲D. Gunnarsson←▼K. Konráðsson

75'▲S. Thasaphong←▼E. Ingvarsson

83'▲Éric Vales←▼K. Quee

Grindavik substitutes

GunnarssonThasaphongValesJóhannssonMagnússonHávarðarsonHelgason

Match Recap: Leiknir R. vs Grindavik

Grindavik beat Leiknir R. 3-2 in 1. Deild on June 15, 2024.

Goals: E. Ingvarsson (4'), S. Veseli (25'), Dennis Nieblas (59'), D. Gunnarsson (84'), R. Árnason (89').

The match was played at Leiknisvöllur in Reykjavík.

Leiknir R. vs Grindavik — 1. Deild 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Leiknir R. vs Grindavik