Leicester 0–0 Sunderland: Result & Stats

Leicester

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sunderland

11/22/2014

Premier League · Round 12King Power Stadium (Leicester, Leicestershire)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Leicester42%

×Draw26%

Sunderland31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeicesterExpected goals in this matchSunderland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.16

Leicester

1.40

Sunderland

1.16

Leicester creates 21% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 19 away

1.14

creates per match

0.97

1.35

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Leicester

1.14

Sunderland

0.97

allows per match

Leicester

1.35

Sunderland

1.66

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Leicester+0.03on par

Sunderland-0.08on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Sunderland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Leicester or draw

69%

Leicester or Sunderland

74%

Draw or Sunderland

58%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+

20%

Sunderland wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals

75%

Leicester 2+ goals

41%

Leicester 3+ goals

17%

Sunderland 1+ goals

69%

Sunderland 2+ goals

32%

Sunderland 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)

58%

Sunderland (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.35 · 6 matches

Sunderland away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.66 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.14 + Sunderland defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.40

Sunderland attack 0.97 + Leicester defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Leicester scores more

42%

level

26%

Sunderland scores more

31%

Leicester at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

72'

D. Nugent← J. Vardy

75'

L. Bridcutt← S. Larsson

79'

A. Knockaert← J. Schlupp

86'

W. Buckley← Jordi Gómez

88'

C. Wood← L. Ulloa

Leicester

Sunderland

1

15

5

16

27

11

6

14

▼

Gómez

7

▼

9

10

1

3

27

5

2

19

8

23

▼

Ulloa

26

Mahrez

9

▼

Vardy

15

▼

Schlupp

72'▲D. Nugent←▼J. Vardy

79'▲A. Knockaert←▼J. Schlupp

88'▲C. Wood←▼L. Ulloa

Leicester substitutes

35Nugent24Knockaert39Wood10King12Hamer18Moore4Drinkwater

75'▲L. Bridcutt←▼S. Larsson

86'▲W. Buckley←▼Jordi Gómez

Sunderland substitutes

4Bridcutt30Buckley8Rodwell17Altidore25Mannone22Coates34Robson