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Leicester vs Stoke City — Premier League 2026

Leicester
Leicester
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Stoke City
Stoke City
Bojan 63'
1/17/2015Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22King Power Stadium (Leicester, Leicestershire)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Leicester50%
×Draw25%
Stoke City25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leicester
1.58
Stoke City
1.04

Leicester creates 52% more chances

Season form · 169 home / 74 away

creates per match

Leicester
1.56
Stoke City
0.91

allows per match

Leicester
1.18
Stoke City
1.61

finishing

Leicester+0.00on par
Stoke City+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Stoke City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Leicester or draw
75%
Leicester or Stoke City
75%
Draw or Stoke City
50%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+
26%
Stoke City wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals
79%
Leicester 2+ goals
47%
Leicester 3+ goals
21%
Stoke City 1+ goals
65%
Stoke City 2+ goals
28%
Stoke City 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)
67%
Stoke City (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.18 · 169 matches

Stoke City away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.61 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.56 + Stoke City defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.58

Stoke City attack 0.91 + Leicester defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Leicester scores more
50%
level
25%
Stoke City scores more
25%

Leicester at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
Marcin Wasilewski
63'
Bojan↳ J. Walters
65'
A. Kramarić← J. Vardy
71'
T. Lawrence← J. Schlupp
71'
L. Ulloa← D. Nugent
81'
P. Crouch← M. Arnautović
86'
G. Cameron← V. Moses

Possession

46%Leicester

Statistics

LeicesterStoke
Overview
46%Possession54%
6Corners5
8Fouls6
Shots
5On Target3
2Off Target5
Passing
46%Possession54%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
8Fouls6
1Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Leicester vs Stoke City

Stoke City beat Leicester 1-0 in Premier League on January 17, 2015.

Goals: Bojan (63').

Stoke City dominated possession with 54% of the ball.

The match was played at King Power Stadium (Leicester, Leicestershire).