Leicester 0–4 Liverpool: Result & Stats

Leicester

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Liverpool

T. Alexander-Arnold 78'

Roberto Firmino 74', 31'

J. Milner 71' (pen)

12/26/2019

Premier League · Round 19King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Leicester33%

×Draw26%

Liverpool42%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeicesterExpected goals in this matchLiverpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.46

Leicester

1.27

Liverpool

1.46

Liverpool creates 15% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 32 away

1.23

creates per match

1.61

1.30

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Leicester

1.23

Liverpool

1.61

allows per match

Leicester

1.30

Liverpool

1.32

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Leicester+0.10scores more

Liverpool+0.17scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Liverpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Leicester or draw

58%

Leicester or Liverpool

74%

Draw or Liverpool

67%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+

14%

Liverpool wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals

72%

Leicester 2+ goals

36%

Leicester 3+ goals

14%

Liverpool 1+ goals

77%

Liverpool 2+ goals

43%

Liverpool 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)

44%

Liverpool (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 9 matches

Liverpool away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.32 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.23 + Liverpool defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Liverpool attack 1.61 + Leicester defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Leicester scores more

33%

level

26%

Liverpool scores more

42%

Liverpool at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

66

T. Alexander-Arnold

Liverpool · D

9.7

Match Events

31'

Roberto Firmino↳ T. Alexander-Arnold

58'

M. Albrighton← H. Barnes

62'

Joe Gomez

70'

D. Origi← Mohamed Salah

70'

J. Milner← N. Keïta

71'

J. MilnerPenalty

72'

Ayoze Pérez← D. Praet

73'

James Maddison

74'

Roberto Firmino↳ T. Alexander-Arnold

76'

H. Choudhury← J. Maddison

78'

T. Alexander-Arnold↳ S. Mané

82'

A. Lallana← J. Henderson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeicesterLiverpool

Overview

41%Possession59%

3Total Shots15

2Corners8

5Fouls7

Shots

3Total Shots15

0On Target6

2Off Target7

1Blocked2

1Inside Box12

2Outside Box3

Passing

41%Possession59%

421Total Passes590

345Accurate Passes506

82%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

5Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

6Offsides3