Leicester 1–3 Leeds: Result & Stats

Leicester

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Leeds

H. Barnes 13'

J. Harrison 84'

P. Bamford 70'

S. Dallas 15'

1/31/2021

Premier League · Round 21King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Leicester43%

×Draw25%

Leeds32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeicesterExpected goals in this matchLeeds

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.25

Leicester

1.50

Leeds

1.25

Leicester creates 20% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 26 away

1.18

creates per match

1.15

1.34

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Leicester

1.18

Leeds

1.15

allows per match

Leicester

1.34

Leeds

1.83

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Leicester+0.12scores more

Leeds-0.15scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Leeds →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Leicester or draw

68%

Leicester or Leeds

75%

Draw or Leeds

57%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+

21%

Leeds wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals

78%

Leicester 2+ goals

44%

Leicester 3+ goals

19%

Leeds 1+ goals

71%

Leeds 2+ goals

36%

Leeds 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)

58%

Leeds (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.34 · 10 matches

Leeds away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.83 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.18 + Leeds defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.50

Leeds attack 1.15 + Leicester defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Leicester scores more

43%

level

25%

Leeds scores more

32%

Leicester at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

P. Bamford

Leeds · F

8.6

Match Events

13'

H. Barnes↳ J. Maddison

15'

S. Dallas↳ P. Bamford

21'

M. Klich← Rodrigo

36'

Ricardo Pereira← T. Castagne

38'

Luke Ayling

46'

Ç. Söyüncü← M. Albrighton

50'

Wesley FofanaGoal cancelled

62'

70'

74'

80'

80'

Hélder Costa← Raphinha

84'

J. Harrison↳ P. Bamford

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeicesterLeeds

Overview

50%Possession50%

18Total Shots8

5Corners4

17Fouls16

Shots

18Total Shots8

8On Target7

4Off Target0

6Blocked1

7Inside Box7

11Outside Box1

Passing

50%Possession50%

404Total Passes389

303Accurate Passes281

75%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves7

Discipline

17Fouls16

0Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2

Premier League: Leicester 1–3 Leeds

Leeds beat Leicester 3-1 in Premier League on January 31, 2021.

Goals: H. Barnes (13'), S. Dallas (15'), P. Bamford (70'), J. Harrison (84').

Leicester controlled possession (50%) and registered 18 shots to 8.

The match was played at King Power Stadium in Leicester, Leicestershire.

Leicester vs Leeds — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Leicester 1–3 Leeds