Leeds 1–1 Leicester: Result & Stats

Leeds

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Leicester

L. Sinisterra 20'

J. Vardy 80'

4/25/2023

Premier League · Round 33Elland Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Leeds46%

×Draw22%

Leicester31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeedsExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.52

Leeds

1.89

Leicester

1.52

Leeds creates 24% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 8 away

1.57

creates per match

1.73

1.31

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Leeds

1.57

Leicester

1.73

allows per match

Leeds

1.31

Leicester

2.21

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

Leeds-0.15scores less

Leicester-0.35scores less

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Leeds or draw

69%

Leeds or Leicester

78%

Draw or Leicester

54%

Winning margin

Leeds wins by 2+

26%

Leicester wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Leeds 1+ goals

85%

Leeds 2+ goals

56%

Leeds 3+ goals

29%

Leicester 1+ goals

78%

Leicester 2+ goals

45%

Leicester 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Leeds (draw refunded)

60%

Leicester (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.21 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds attack 1.57 + Leicester defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.89

Leicester attack 1.73 + Leeds defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Leeds scores more

46%

level

22%

Leicester scores more

31%

Leeds at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Maddison

Leicester · M

8.0

Match Events

8'

Youri TielemansGoal cancelled

20'

L. Sinisterra↳ J. Harrison

32'

C. Summerville← L. Sinisterra

41'

45+2'

52'

53'

60'

67'

68'

70'

J. Vardy← Tetê

70'

P. Daka← H. Barnes

80'

J. Vardy↳ J. Maddison

82'

D. Praet← K. Ịheanachọ

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeedsLeicester

Overview

41%Possession59%

13Total Shots15

1.68Expected Goals (xG)2.19

3Corners6

14Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots15

3On Target3

6Off Target6

4Blocked6

9Inside Box12

4Outside Box3

Passing

41%Possession59%

307Total Passes445

197Accurate Passes325

64%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls15

4Yellow Cards2

4Offsides6

Match Recap: Leeds vs Leicester

Leeds and Leicester drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 25, 2023.

Goals: L. Sinisterra (20'), J. Vardy (80').

Leicester controlled possession (59%) and registered 15 shots to 13.

The match was played at Elland Road in Leeds, West Yorkshire.

Leeds vs Leicester — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Leeds vs Leicester