Leicester 1–3 Chelsea: Result & Stats

Leicester

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Chelsea

P. Daka 39'

M. Kovačić 78'

K. Havertz 45+6'

B. Chilwell 11'

3/11/2023

Premier League · Round 27King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Leicester37%

×Draw25%

Chelsea38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeicesterExpected goals in this matchChelsea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.45

Leicester

1.41

Chelsea

1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 34 away

1.33

creates per match

1.51

1.39

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Leicester

1.33

Chelsea

1.51

allows per match

Leicester

1.39

Chelsea

1.48

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Leicester-0.19scores less

Chelsea-0.07on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Chelsea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Leicester or draw

62%

Leicester or Chelsea

75%

Draw or Chelsea

63%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+

17%

Chelsea wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals

76%

Leicester 2+ goals

41%

Leicester 3+ goals

17%

Chelsea 1+ goals

77%

Chelsea 2+ goals

42%

Chelsea 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)

49%

Chelsea (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.39 · 7 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.48 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.33 + Chelsea defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.41

Chelsea attack 1.51 + Leicester defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Leicester scores more

37%

level

25%

Chelsea scores more

38%

Chelsea at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

C. Gallagher

Chelsea · M

8.0

Match Events

11'

B. Chilwell↳ K. Koulibaly

13'

Wesley Fofana

19'

Wout Faes

31'

Marc Cucurella

36'

João FélixGoal cancelled

39'

P. Daka↳ Ricardo Pereira

45'

James MaddisonPenalty cancelled

45+6'

K. Havertz↳ E. Fernández

46'

C. Gallagher← João Félix

51'

Ricardo Pereira

66'

H. Barnes← P. Daka

66'

B. Soumaré← N. Mendy

66'

Tetê← D. Amartey

72'

C. Pulišić← B. Chilwell

73'

T. Chalobah← R. Loftus-Cheek

76'

J. Vardy← K. Ịheanachọ

78'

M. Kovačić↳ M. Mudryk

79'

Mateo KovačićGoal confirmed

82'

C. Chukwuemeka← M. Mudryk

86'

B. Badiashile← W. Fofana

87'

Wout Faes

87'

Wout Faes

90'

J. Evans← J. Maddison

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeicesterChelsea

Overview

48%Possession52%

17Total Shots12

2.52Expected Goals (xG)1.57

2Corners5

10Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots12

7On Target6

4Off Target3

6Blocked3

8Inside Box9

9Outside Box3

Passing

48%Possession52%

517Total Passes550

429Accurate Passes464

83%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

0Offsides4

Premier League: Leicester 1–3 Chelsea

Chelsea beat Leicester 3-1 in Premier League on March 11, 2023.

Goals: B. Chilwell (11'), P. Daka (39'), K. Havertz (45+6'), M. Kovačić (78').

Chelsea controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 17.

The match was played at King Power Stadium in Leicester, Leicestershire.

Leicester vs Chelsea — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Leicester 1–3 Chelsea