Chelsea 2–1 Leicester: Result & Stats

Chelsea

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Leicester

R. Sterling 63', 47'

H. Barnes 66'

8/27/2022

Premier League · Round 4Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Chelsea50%

×Draw22%

Leicester28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelseaExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.50

Chelsea

2.04

Leicester

1.50

Chelsea creates 36% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 8 away

1.86

creates per match

1.73

1.28

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Chelsea

1.86

Leicester

1.73

allows per match

Chelsea

1.28

Leicester

2.21

-0.44scores less than expected

finishing

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

Chelsea-0.44scores less

Leicester-0.35scores less

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw

72%

Chelsea or Leicester

78%

Draw or Leicester

50%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+

29%

Leicester wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals

87%

Chelsea 2+ goals

60%

Chelsea 3+ goals

33%

Leicester 1+ goals

78%

Leicester 2+ goals

44%

Leicester 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)

64%

Leicester (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.28 · 38 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.21 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.86 + Leicester defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.04

Leicester attack 1.73 + Chelsea defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chelsea scores more

50%

level

22%

Leicester scores more

28%

Chelsea at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Y. Tielemans

Leicester · M

8.9

Match Events

13'

Ruben Loftus-CheekPenalty cancelled

22'

Conor Gallagher

28'

Conor Gallagher

28'

Conor Gallagher

31'

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall

40'

Dennis Praet

46'

César Azpilicueta← M. Mount

47'

R. Sterling↳ Marc Cucurella

55'

Ayoze Pérez← D. Praet

55'

K. Ịheanachọ← B. Soumaré

63'

R. Sterling↳ R. James

66'

H. Barnes↳ J. Vardy

75'

C. Pulišić← R. Sterling

75'

M. Kovačić← Jorginho

89'

W. Ndidi← Y. Tielemans

90+3'

Kai Havertz

90+2'

B. Chilwell← Marc Cucurella

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChelseaLeicester

Overview

45%Possession55%

7Total Shots17

3Corners11

10Fouls7

Shots

7Total Shots17

4On Target5

1Off Target7

2Blocked5

5Inside Box11

2Outside Box6

Passing

45%Possession55%

446Total Passes524

372Accurate Passes456

83%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls7

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

3Offsides1

Premier League: Chelsea 2–1 Leicester

Chelsea beat Leicester 2-1 in Premier League on August 27, 2022.

Goals: R. Sterling (47', 63'), H. Barnes (66').

Leicester controlled possession (55%) and registered 17 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stamford Bridge in London.

Chelsea vs Leicester — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Chelsea 2–1 Leicester